Affective forecasting: Challenges in predicting the intensity and durability of emotions

We often decide whether to participate in activities based on affective forecasting. This entails predicting the emotions we are likely to experience by engaging in activities. For example, you would be more likely to participate in an activity which you predict will lead you to experience happiness and excitement compared to an activity which you predict will lead you to experience frustration and anger.

But just how accurate is this affective forecasting which guides our decisions whether to participate in activities? In the following sections, I will answer this question and discuss the implications for deciding whether to participate in activities.

How accurate is affective forecasting?

Like the much-discussed inaccuracy of weather forecasting, affective forecasting is likewise notoriously inaccurate. This inaccuracy applies whether we are predicting the emotions we are likely to experience in advance of enjoyable activities or predicting the emotions we are likely to experience in advance of unpleasant activities.

Two biases which cause inaccuracy in affective forecasting

The inaccuracy of affective forecasting manifests itself in the form of two biases

The intensity bias

People tend to overestimate the intensity of the emotions they are likely to experience in advance of an activity in which they will participate. This is known as the intensity bias.

In the case of enjoyable activities, we tend to overestimate how strong the emotions like happiness and excitement are likely to be in anticipation of participating in these activities. That is, once we engage in the activities we typically discover that the intensity of these emotions is less than we had predicted.

Similarly, for unpleasant activities we tend to overestimate how strong the emotions like frustration and anger are likely to be in anticipation of participating in these activities. That is, once we engage in the activities we typically discover that the intensity of these emotions is less than we had predicted.

The durability bias

People also tend to overestimate the time course of emotions they are likely to experience in advance of an activity in which they will participate. This is known as the durability bias.

In the case of enjoyable activities, we tend to overestimate how long emotions like happiness and excitement are likely to last when participating in these activities. That is, once we engage in the activities we typically discover that the durability of these emotions is less than what we had predicted.

Similarly for unpleasant activities, we tend to overestimate how long emotions like frustration and anger  are likely to last when participating in these activities. That is, once we engage in the activities we typically discover that the durability of these emotions is also less than what we had predicted.

How to benefit from awareness of biases in affective forecasting

You can benefit from awareness of biases in affective forecasting in several ways:

It helps you to be more open to new activities

We often avoid new activities because of the intensity and durability biases. That is, we overestimate the intensity and durability of unpleasant emotions such as anxiety and frustration which we often experience when trying a new activity.

If we remind ourselves of these biases and of our own experiences in which we tried new activities, we are more likely to give new activities a try. Doing so allows us to realize through experience that the intensity and durability of unpleasant emotions associated with a new activity are less than we predicted.

It helps you to overcome procrastination in activities and tasks

We also often procrastinate because of the intensity and durability biases. That is, we overestimate the intensity and durability of unpleasant emotions such as anxiety and frustration which will experience while participating in an activity or performing a task. As described by Dr. Fuschia M. Sirois in Procrastination, we procrastinate to avoid experiencing what we believe will be intense and long-lasting unpleasant emotions associated with an activity or task.

As Dr. Sirois points out, reminding ourselves of these biases and of our own experiences in which we performed what we believed would be unpleasant tasks and activities, we are less likely to procrastinate by engaging in the activity or task. Doing so allows us to realize that the intensity and durability of unpleasant emotions associated with the task or activity are less than we predicted. In turn, this makes it less likely we will procrastinate on the next task or activity.

It helps you to continue participating in enjoyable activities

It may be surprising to hear that someone would want to discontinue participating in an enjoyable activity. In fact, this often happens because of the effects of affective forecasting.

That is, because people overestimate the intensity and durability of the positive emotions they will experience leading up to an enjoyable activity, disappointment may occur when they discover that the intensity and durability of anticipated emotions like happiness and excitement are less than they were expecting. This can lead the person to abandon the activity, leading them to miss out on additional happiness and excitement.

Reminding yourself of the intensity and durability will help to eliminate this disappointment. In turn, this will make it more likely that you will continue engaging in an enjoyable activity.

May you benefit from awareness of the inaccuracy of affective forecasting,

-Dr. Pat